Independent, line-by-line verifiable research from primary SEC filings · no jargon · willing to differ from consensus
Stock research
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TSM
TSMC (TSM)
Thesis verdict: holds, with conditions — AI demand has lifted advanced nodes to 74% of revenue, but massive 2026 capex and overseas fab construction will push up deprecia…
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TSLA
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
Thesis verdict: holds, with conditions — FSD and high-margin services are scaling fast, but not fast enough to offset $25B of capex and shrinking hardware margins right a…
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SMCI
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)
Thesis verdict: holds, with conditions — Q4 gross margin rebounded strongly on liquid cooling, but a full-year operating cash outflow of $6.8B and elevated inventory show…
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NVDA
NVIDIA (NVDA) Deep-Dive: A Chain of Heavy-Asset Bets on the Compute Throne
Thesis verdict: holds, with conditions — compute shortages and the Blackwell ramp are enough to sustain a 75% gross margin, provided downstream model monetization is deli…
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MU
Micron Technology (MU) Deep-Dive
Thesis verdict: holds, with conditions — take-or-pay long-term contracts smooth part of the downside, but $27B of aggressive capacity expansion and Chinese competitors re…
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MSTR
Strategy Inc (MSTR) Deep-Dive: A Tightrope Walk at a 100x Valuation
Thesis verdict: holds, with conditions — the company holds ample dollar liquidity and a ten-billion-dollar-scale ATM capacity, so near-term liquidity is not in doubt; but…
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MSFT
Microsoft Corp (MSFT)
Thesis verdict: holds, with conditions — AI demand has genuinely turned into a record backlog of long-term contracts, but massive on-balance-sheet capex and off-balance-s…
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META
Meta Platforms (META)
Thesis verdict: holds, with conditions — AI-driven gains in both ad volume and pricing prove monetization efficiency, but extreme near-term capex has indeed shrunk free c…
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GOOGL
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
Thesis verdict: holds, with conditions — cloud revenue and profit are growing explosively, and more than $500B of performance obligations lock in long-term demand; but a…
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COIN
Coinbase (COIN)
Thesis verdict: holds, with conditions — the share of institutional derivatives and subscription services is genuinely rising, but the retail spot base is sliding so fast…
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AMZN
Amazon (AMZN) Deep-Dive: The Tug-of-War Between Massive Compute Spending and the Profit Myth
Thesis verdict: holds, with conditions — AWS's re-acceleration and margin expansion prove an initial closed loop for AI monetization, but net income is distorted by the A…
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AMD
AMD Deep-Dive: The Trillion-Dollar Party and Its Reefs — What Are the Odds for AI's Second Pole?
Thesis verdict: holds, with conditions — the data-center ramp has genuinely lifted gross margin, but a lasting rise in EPS depends on whether hyperscaler orders can absor…
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AAPL
Apple Inc. (AAPL) Deep-Dive: When a Rich Valuation Meets a Cost Wall and Antitrust Reefs
Thesis verdict: holds, with conditions — the 50.1% gross margin includes a 2-point lift from tariff refunds, 48.1% without it; with memory costs and AI R&D surging, only…
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PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) Deep-Dive: The Operating System for Deploying Large Models — Can It Carry an AI-Infrastructure Valuation Far Above SaaS?
Thesis verdict: holds, with conditions — AIP and the Ontology genuinely solve the physical bottleneck of putting large models to work, driving 149% U.S. commercial growth…
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AVGO
Broadcom (AVGO)
Thesis verdict: holds, with conditions — AI chip demand and $179.2B of RPO give unusually high visibility, provided the frontier labs do not default and low-margin hardwa…
Insights
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Why Following Consensus Can't Make You Money: It's Already in the Price
A stock's price is the sum of everyone's expectations. If you think what everyone thinks, you get what everyone gets.
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What Stock Research Worth Paying For Looks Like: Five Marks of Verifiability
Good research doesn't ask you to believe it. It lets you check it. Here are five marks you can spot at a glance.
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You Don't Need Jargon to Read a 10-K: Three First-Principles Questions
A 10-K isn't a codebook for accountants. Hold on to three questions — where the money comes from, where it goes, and where what's left ends up — and you understand the co…